About the Democrats

Can they become a big tent party?

Photo by J. Amill Santiago on Unsplash

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Last month I wrote about the last gasp of the normal Republicans. If and when a post-January-6 Trump gets nominated for the presidency, it will mark a permanent stain on the GOP. 

Many prominent Republicans didn’t even savor their last moments of normalcy. Marco Rubio endorsed Trump one day before the Iowa caucuses. Tim Scott endorsed Trump the weekend before the New Hampshire primary. Ron DeSantis dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Trump in the same breath.

If the country elects Trump in 2024, it will be validating his lies about the 2020 election, endorsing his attempted theft of that election, rewarding his openly authoritarian rhetoric, and repudiating the American ethos that nobody is above the law.

So let’s look at the Democrats.

The main problem 

In a parallel universe, Democrats would be winning elections in a landslide. 

Democrats are not winning elections in a landslide, partly because their coalition includes a cohort of extremely online leftists and a cohort of democratic socialists. Neither of these cohorts are helping Democrats win independent voters. 

Even though Joe Biden is a normal politician who beat Bernie Sanders in the 2020 primary, he decided to make peace with his Democratic coalition instead of shaking up the coalition by governing in a style that would have allowed Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema to remain a Democrat in good standing. 

A good example of this coalition maintenance was when Biden threatened to veto his own infrastructure bill and then slow-walked the passage of the bill. 

Why did Biden threaten to veto his signature legislative accomplishment? Because he wanted to assure leftists that he was serious about their dreams for economic transformation.

Biden has been successful in passing bipartisan legislation, but he has politically catered to his left flank. Instead of asserting himself as a centrist leader, Biden tacitly helped progressives push Kyrsten Sinema out of the party.

Another damper on the Democratic parade is that the Biden administration was nonchalant about border security in the beginning of his term. The Biden administration has become more serious about the border since early 2023, and a bipartisan border deal is still possible this year (thanks to Sinema, no thanks to Trump), but this is a weak spot for Dems according to the polls. 

The Constitution

When Biden was in Tempe a few months ago, he said:

So, you, me, every American who is committed to preserving our democracy and our constitutional protections, we carry a special responsibility. We have to stand up for American values embedded in the Constitution, the Declaration of Independence, because we know the MAGA extremists have already proven they won’t.

I believe Biden is sincere when he talks about American values. 

Biden’s critics will point to examples of where he has stepped beyond the boundaries of his constitutional authority.  

For example, Biden made a blunder with his student loan forgiveness plan. He tried to forgive a wide swath of student loans, knowing that his actions would be struck down by the courts. 

A federal judge called it "one of the largest exercises of legislative power without congressional authority in the history of the United States."

A president who is planning to run a campaign against authoritarianism should have been more disciplined in this regard. He threw a bone to his coalition but handed a weapon to his political opponents. 

Dan McLaughlin of the National Review has argued that Democrats, if they are serious about “tyrant-proofing” the Executive Branch, should get on board with traditionally conservative measures to limit executive power.

Fair enough, although let’s keep in mind that the reason for a sense of urgency on tyrant-proofing the Executive Branch is that the soon-to-be Republican nominee¹ for president believes that presidents should be immune from accountability for any action.

The Constitution is likely to face some turbulence this year. Here’s hoping the better angels of our nature can prevail. 

The economy 

Republicans are afraid that, if Democrats control the Congress and the presidency, they will abolish the Senate filibuster and enact policies like the Green New Deal.

I would have an easier time dismissing this fear if more Democrats had voiced solidarity with Sinema and her centrist colleague Joe Manchin during policy fights these past few years. There were rumors that more Democrats secretly supported the centrist cause, but they let Sinema and Manchin take the left-wing arrows.

Manchin is retiring and Sinema is unlikely to win re-election as an independent if she runs.

So I have to say, weakly, that I don’t think progressives have enough support in the Democratic Party to enact policies that would transform the national economy.

Still, traditional conservatives and a lot of independents will look at the policies already passed under Biden, like the Inflation Reduction Act, and grimace thinking about the trend toward bigger government and higher taxes.

Is the economy really that bad, though? The vibes are bad but the data is pretty good. Econ Substacker Noah Smith thinks we’ve made a soft landing — inflation has come down while unemployment has remained low and incomes are rising.

Neither political party wants to do anything about entitlements or the national debt, so if you care about fiscal responsibility, you are up shit creek without a paddle. 

The culture war 

Republicans are afraid that a win for Democrats is a win for cultural leftists who subscribe to an esoteric version of social justice that devalues the dignity of the individual person.

The fear is most tangible in the world of education. Do leftists care more about free inquiry and academic performance, or about imposing the “correct” way of thinking?

This is not an imaginary issue, as some Democrats would like to believe. 

Plenty of swing voters are cultural moderates who are concerned about free speech and classical liberal values. They don’t post much on social media, so the online conversation is skewed to the extremes.

In Arizona in 2022, four MAGA Republicans lost statewide elections to relatively normal Democrats. 

On the same ballot, Republican Tom Horne unseated Democrat Kathy Hoffman for the office of Superintendent of Public Instruction.

Perhaps voters were generally dissatisfied with Covid learning conditions, but Horne won by running a disciplined campaign that focused on student discipline and academic performance. 

Sure, Republicans often sound deranged when talking about the culture war, and yes, Tom Horne’s CRT reporting hotline was a debacle … but that doesn’t make this an imaginary issue. 

Democrats in swing states like Arizona would do well to avoid groupthink on cultural issues and find ways to assert independent judgment.

The silver linings

The Democratic Party is still somewhat functional. They should be able to think and act strategically. 

For example, House Dems smoothly transitioned to a new generation of leadership, from Nancy Pelosi to Hakeem Jeffries. House Dems have been disciplined in their budget negotiations with Republicans. By contrast, House Republicans have been chewing up and spitting out leaders for stupid reasons.

Joe Biden is running for re-election, for better or worse. He’s old, but he’s still Biden. He negotiates in good faith with Republicans. He supports NATO. He talks like a normal president.

When left-wing mobs show up in D.C., they show up to protest against President Joe Biden, not to support him.

The Democrats are in a coalition with the far left, but they are not trapped in a cult of personality. 

Several members of the progressive “Squad” in the House are facing serious primary challenges from traditional liberals.

Senator John Fetterman has ditched the progressive label and has been asserting his independence on issues from Israel to border security.

There are pragmatic Democratic governors out there, like Wes Moore, Jared Polis, Gretchen Whitmer, and Josh Shapiro.

Put it this way: A pragmatic Democrat has a more hopeful career path than a Republican who has publicly stated, “Joe Biden is a legitimate president.”

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1. As of this writing, Nikki Haley is still running for president. I applaud her for her efforts. I hope she continues to campaign in order to give Republican voters a choice. I hope she doesn’t endorse Trump if she loses.