The last gasp of the normal Republicans
December 2023
When it's all said and done, the epitaph for the Party of Lincoln will read:
Here lies the soul of the Republican Party. It deserved a better fight than it got.
The best chance to save the GOP from moral self-destruction was the second impeachment of Donald Trump, the one where he incited violence against the Legislative Branch.
If the Founding Fathers had written a textbook example of behavior that deserved impeachment, they might have described the behavior of our 45th president in his mad scramble to reverse the reality of his 2020 election loss.
The House of Representatives brought impeachment charges immediately. The Senate trial was delayed until after Joe Biden’s inauguration, complicating the Constitutional question before the Senators.
Seven Republican Senators voted to convict Trump of impeachable offenses. 17 were needed for a successful conviction that would have, if upheld by the courts, barred Trump from holding office again.
In this instance, the pressure to exonerate Trump was more than political. Republican Senators knew that voting to convict would endanger their own personal safety. Mitt Romney was paying $5,000 per day for private security to protect his family.
This, in the United States of America.
The second best — and perhaps, the last — chance to save the GOP from moral self-destruction is the presidential primary happening right now.
Ron DeSantis is running as a populist. He embraces the policy alterations of a Trump-infused party, but he is a rational and sane person whose victory would show that the GOP is a rational and sane party.
Nikki Haley is a conservative who embraces the old-school principles of free markets and national defense. Her victory would be the result of a counter-movement away from Trumpism.
The voting begins January 2024. The early states of Iowa and New Hampshire will be decisive.
I’m pulling for a miracle upset, but if the polls are accurate and nothing drastic changes, the challengers will lose in a landslide.
The Trump Show is likely to return.
Buckle your seatbelts.
Normal Republicans — the ones who think Mike Pence did the right thing on January 6th — will be forced to make a decision about whether to support the nominee of their party.
I would like to offer responses to a few of the most frequently cited pro-Trump rationalizations.
“We just have to wait out this last bit of time as loyal Republicans. Things will get back to normal after Trump’s defeat in 2024, or after his term is up in 2028.”
I think this viewpoint downplays the extent to which the Trump ethos has already infected the party as a whole. Young Republicans coming of age over the past eight years have known nothing except for Trump as a role model and everyone else excusing, mimicking, or quietly accepting his antics.
The lessons of the Trump Era: Childish name-calling is funny. Bullying is easier than persuasion. Outright lying becomes true if you repeat it over and over. Never apologize for doing anything wrong. Avoid accountability for any failure. Elections and court rulings are rigged if they don't go your way. Personal character is irrelevant to leadership.
It will take a very long time to unlearn these lessons.
To win a civil war for the soul of their party, normal Republicans needed first to acknowledge there was a war going on, and then to fight in it.
They have done neither.
MAGA politicians — the ones who think Mike Pence should have had the courage to do what needed to be done on January 6th — have been explicit in declaring their intention to destroy the filthy RINOs and take full control over the party.
Meanwhile, normal Republicans have been reticent to offer the slightest criticism of the most egregious civil transgressions.
A handful of rational conservatives have assertively defended reality in the public arena. I salute them for their patriotism and bravery.
As for the old establishment, “capitulation for the sake of unity” has done nothing but further empower the extremists.
On the current trajectory, the future of the party seems firmly in grasp of MAGA disciples.
“Left-wing extremism must be defeated, therefore it is more advantageous to support MAGA when it is on the ticket.”
I agree that left-wing extremism poses a threat to a classically liberal society. The bullying. The moral obfuscations. The willingness to bend reality to fit a viewpoint. Disdain for the rule of law. Disdain for civic principles that are supposed to unite us.
But those descriptions could equally be applied to the far right.
The extremes are mirror images of each other. They feed off each other.
Empowering MAGA to fight illiberalism is a self-defeating proposition.
“Border security.”
Maybe the border will be more secure, but as Ron DeSantis likes to point out, Trump was incompetent and he never built the wall as promised.
Real solutions will require comprehensive immigration reform, which will be impossible without a rational person in the Oval Office.
If Trump 2.0 does try to secure the border, he might use draconian methods that would be inhumane, damaging to civil liberties, and damaging to the economy.
“The economy is better under Republicans.”
There's no telling what the economic plan would be under a second Trump administration. The only thing we know for sure is that it would be peak chaos.
In the first Trump term, his advisors were normal Republicans. His major legislative accomplishment was a Paul Ryan tax cut.
When the pandemic hit, Trump panicked. He significantly boosted the national debt and started us down an inflationary cycle with big spending budgets.
The “New Right” is moving the party away from free market principles and fiscal conservatism.
At best, a second Trump term is an economic crapshoot. At worst, the country spirals into civil disorder.
“Trump is too stupid to become a successful dictator.”
Whenever Trump praises dictators, he talks about how smart they are.
Whenever Republicans dismiss the danger of a Trump takeover, they talk about his short attention span, his susceptibility to flattery, and how his whole deal is just a joke so relax.
It is definitely a good thing he isn't as focused as he is egotistical, but Trump does have an instinct that has proven to be effective.
He is a professional entertainer with a Neuralink connection to the lizard brain of right-wing social media. He can adopt a disarming manner in personal interactions.
He has a fiercely loyal fanbase. He has a devoted right-wing media apparatus that will gleefully endorse any action that owns the libs.
Trump corralled a group of elite politicians into helping him try to overturn the outcome of the 2020 election. He is likely to snag a second presidential nomination despite committing grave crimes against the Constitution.
In a second term, Trump will be advised by a group of post-liberal ideologues who know how to work the system.
Maybe the risk of tyranny is overblown, but I would rather not find out.
“Our institutions are stable. We have checks and balances. If Trump tries to do the things he says he will do, he will be thwarted. If he wins in 2024, he will leave office peacefully in 2028.”
I hope so, although this is a pretty low expectation for the leader of the free world.
The republic may survive another Trump term.
The dignity of the Republican Party will not.
Excellent analysis. Would like to see your take on the "last gasp of normal Democrats".
I tend to agree with most of what you wrote, except for your analysis of DeSantis: "Ron DeSantis is running as a populist. He embraces the policy alterations of a Trump-infused party, but he is a rational and sane person whose victory would show that the GOP is a rational and sane party. " he is a Trump clone, except maybe a bit smarter, which makes him really dangerous. I doubt that most Never Trumpers would see him as "rational and sane."