Now we wait

Seven questions to think about before election day.

Photo by Luke Stackpoole on Unsplash

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Noah Smith, a popular economics blogger, recently wrote that the free world is teetering on the razor’s edge with this upcoming election. He’s rooting for a Harris victory.

Mike Lee, a Republican senator who has gone full-MAGA, recently tweeted, “If Kamala Harris wins, prepare for 75 years of Democratic rule.”

I agree with Noah Smith more than I do with Mike Lee, but I have something in common with both of them: I’m feeling unsettled as we wait for the election.

I decided to organize my thoughts into seven questions. 

1. Are political parties to blame for our divisions?

We are having a vigorous debate in Arizona about the role of political parties. Prop 140 would eliminate partisan primaries and replace them with open primaries. The state legislature would get to decide whether the general election is a contest between the top two vote-getters of the primary or a ranked-choice system with more than two candidates. 

This debate between Chuck Coughlin and Andrew Gould on Fox10 is worth watching simply for the entertainment value. Coughlin argues passionately for the rights of independent voters and candidates. He says it’s “Boston Tea Party stuff” that independent candidates have to raise six times as many signatures as partisan candidates and they don’t even appear on the primary ballot they pay for in taxes.

Gould: The fact of the matter is, you're putting ranked-choice voting into the—Hold on, let me finish! For God’s sakes, let me finish!

Coughlin: I didn’t say anything. I’m just leaning into you. 

Gould: I know, well … lean back!

(Laughter) 

This debate on Horizon between Terry Goddard and Andrew Gould is calmer, but still entertaining as Gould defends the current system against a different Prop 140 proponent.

Gould: I think Terry said something very important. You need to listen to what he said.

Goddard: Well, thank you. 

Gould: They want ranked-choice voting.

Goddard: I didn’t say that.

In both debates, a major point of disagreement was whether political parties are to blame for our divisions. 

Gould’s assertion is that our politics are divided because the people are divided. The two-party system is a reflection of the people. 

Coughlin and Goddard believe that political parties are fueling division and dysfunction. They say the incentives are warped because politicians need to survive partisan primaries. With open primaries, political figures would be more willing to find compromise and get things done.  

Whether or not Prop 140 passes, I appreciate the proponents’ willingness to challenge a partisan structure that is not necessarily set in stone. 

2. What is the nature of Trumpism?

Kari Lake has tried to mimic Trump, but her act is contrived. It’s not humorous or unpredictable. 

Trump is equal parts menacing and clownish. You can’t look away. He says he wants to use the military against his domestic political opponents, which should be considered one of the most deranged and dangerous things a presidential candidate has ever said. But he’s such a buffoonish figure that Republicans scoff at people who worry about this kind of rhetoric. 

Trump refused to accept the will of voters in 2020, which should be unconscionable to citizens of a republic. But he can still get an audience of business people to laugh when he insults the person interviewing him at an economic forum.

The problem is that Trump has turned one of our political parties into a nihilistic machine. Republican politicians are expected to get on board with literally anything he says or does.

Historians will have a difficult time describing what this time period was like.

3. Is it conservative to support Kamala Harris?

Jeff Flake says he’s supporting Kamala Harris not despite his conservatism, but because of his conservatism. He says conservatives believe in preserving the rule of law.

Travis Grantham, a Republican state lawmaker, responded with this: 

Jeff Flake is confused. No conservative in their right mind would ever support the deadly Marxist policies of Kamala Harris. Barry Goldwater would have voted for Trump.

I think it’s absurd to presume to know how Goldwater would have reacted to Trump’s political rise. And it’s a slander to presume Goldwater wouldn’t have cared about a Republican president’s selfish, delusional rejection of the results of an election.

Barry Goldwater wrote a book, The Conscience of a Conservative, outlining his political ideas. 

Jeff Flake wrote a book in 2017 seeking to update conservative thinking for the Trump Era. He called it: The Conscience of a Conservative: The Rejection of Destructive Politics and a Return to Principle. 

Flake writes, 

I believe that we desperately need to get back to the rigorous, fact-based arguments that made us conservatives in the first place. We need to realize that the stakes are simply too high to remain silent and fall in line.

Readers can decide who is in their right mind.

4. Who is to blame if Trump wins?

The people I would blame the most are Republicans who should have known the risks, but fell in line anyway. The Senate could have convicted Trump of impeachable offenses after January 6th. This would have been “American checks and balances” properly applied. This would have been “we’re a republic, not a democracy” properly applied. Senate Republicans could have drawn a red line that should never be crossed. Instead, most of them consolidated around Trump before voting even started in the 2024 primaries.

Democrats would deserve some blame as well. They allowed left-wing radicals to push them into indefensible policy positions. In almost every instance that mattered, Trump’s opponents got over their skis in ways that backfired. I liked Biden’s high-minded speeches about democracy, but he could never resist making a gratuitous partisan jab. Democrats made it too easy for Republicans to smear the whole “defending democracy” stance as being a political cover. The border is MAGA’s most potent issue, and Biden tossed the unpopular portfolio onto his vice president while he neglected to take the issue seriously early in his term. 

If Kamala Harris wins, on the other hand, Trump will have no one to blame but himself. He will of course blame anyone and everyone else.

5. What is Elon Musk trying to do?

There is no denying Elon Musk’s drive. As an entrepreneur, he broke through with innovative projects at Tesla and SpaceX. 

His political project is bizarre. He bought Twitter, turned it into X, and has since become a diehard Trump supporter. He is spending tons of money and pulling stunts to try to get Trump back into power. He gleefully spews false information about Arizona elections. 

Some people think Elon cares about free speech, the Enlightenment, and government efficiency.

I think Elon bought Twitter because he wanted the platform to be his own. He wanted a tool he could use however he wanted.

I think he wants to treat the U.S. government the same way. 

6. Is Ruben Gallego a strong candidate?

Most people think Kari Lake is losing her Senate race more than Ruben Gallego is winning it.

Perhaps Gallego is a better statewide candidate than people realize.

I’m currently reading Gallego’s book, They Called Us Lucky, which is about PTSD and his combat experience in Iraq. He writes in a genuine voice, revealing a worldview that is informed by hard realities. 

Gallego worked his way up from humble origins to attend Harvard. He joined the Marines halfway through his studies. Once enlisted, he felt it was his duty to face combat if America was at war, even though he was skeptical of the reasons for the war in Iraq. 

On the campaign trail, Gallego speaks authentically to working-class voters at a time when Democrats nationally are losing ground with these voters.

Many commentators said he delivered a weak performance in his debate against Lake, but I disagree. Gallego was poised in the face of provocative attacks. He was prepared and disciplined with his messaging.

If Gallego wins, give him credit. 

7. Where do we go from here?

No matter who wins in 2024, it seems likely that our divisions will intensify in the short term. It is already a bad sign that people are bracing for civil strife because of an election. 

Our divisions are damaging to our collective interests. This is happening at a time when we face looming threats abroad, and our finances are in disrepair.  

I don’t know where we go from here. I remain hopeful, despite it all.

I will conclude with a religious sentiment spoken by Abraham Lincoln, who was a hero of American liberty, who was humble enough to know that nothing is owed to us.

“The Almighty has his own purposes.”

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